In the previous post about the Georgia Peanut Tour, we discussed the economic situation for cotton growers in 2025 and speculated that the decline of cotton as a primary crop in Georgia could be inevitable. While cotton might not disappear from the landscape completely, the basic facts are unavoidable: Synthetic materials like polyester are eating away at demand, and cotton is already being produced abundantly elsewhere, often in places much closer to milling infrastructure. Contemplating the crop’s demise and the shocks it would send through Georgia’s economy bring joy to nobody. At the same time, it is worth contemplating what less cotton might mean for agriculture in the Goober State.

For obvious reasons, we will focus on cotton through the lens of Certified Organic farming and start with a bold generalization. Cotton’s dominance in Georgia has been one of the key factors limiting the expansion of Certified Organic agriculture in the state. The reasons for this are twofold:

First, cotton is a heavy feeder, has significant pests, and sometimes requires plant growth regulators to manage vegetative growth. Producing Certified Organic cotton in hot and humid Georgia is difficult. Organic fertilizer, pesticides, and herbicides do not have the potency of conventional inputs. Georgia farmers are excellent, and there is no doubt they could figure out how to grow Certified Organic cotton well. But it would take time to develop a system for growing it organically.

(There was a chorus of disbelievers and naysayers about Certified Organic peanut production in Georgia before a small group of farmers showed it could be successful. Certified Organic cotton does seem to be a bigger challenge. Still, it would be foolish and insulting to say that farmers in Georgia couldn’t do it. If they can grow Certified Organic cotton in Texas, we find a way to do it in Georgia.)

Second, cotton also requires extensive handling, all of which must be Certified Organic. Let’s ignore textile mills and converters and other down-the-line cotton handlers — most of which left the Southeast for foreign shores some time ago – and look only at gin infrastructure. There are no Certified Organic cotton gins in Georgia at the moment. It’s doubtful there are any even considering becoming Certified Organic because there are no Certified Organic cotton producers. And there are no Certified Organic cotton producers because there are no Certified Organic cotton gins. Besides, one Certified Organic cotton producer wouldn’t be enough to convince a cotton gin: It would take a collection of Certified Organic farmers with enough production to make good financial sense for the gin to become certified. (This is the same chicken-and-egg dilemma that Certified Organic peanuts faced and led to the creation of GOPA.)

Cotton has locked up about 1,000,000 acres in Georgia in conventional production. This is more than 10 percent of the total agricultural acres in the state, and it represents about 44 percent of land dedicated to warm-season row crops each year. That latter percentage might even be low. It would not be outrageous to say that cotton has a hold over almost all of Georgia’s row crop land, and acres planted in other crops are just off-year cotton acres.

Effectively, there is no space in Georgia for Certified Organic peanuts, field corn, and soybeans as cotton as elbowed them out. There is no onramp for Certified Organic cotton production as there are no Certified Organic gins to receive it.

But what if the cotton industry in its current form truly becomes no longer economically viable? It’s a gigantic and terrifying what-if scenario. A large number of farmers would certainly sell out or retire. Per the 2022 Census of Agriculture, the average age of a Georgia farmer was 59, and 26,686 farmers (out of 67,082) were 65 or older. It’s hard to imagine this group depleting their savings and equity. Others would keep growing cotton, probably with new government support programs. There would likely be a consolidation among gins, but some farmers and gins might turn to niche marketing and value chains like Certified Organic or “U.S.-grown and -sown” to capture more dollars. The last number probably would keep farming but get out of the cotton business. They might grow some combination of peanuts, corn, soybeans, sorghum, millet, sunflowers, hay, etc. — none of which are free of economic complications — until some better idea comes along (data, maybe).

Whatever the ultimate fallout, fewer cotton acres should be a benefit to Certified Organic production in Georgia, and hopefully some of the new Certified Organic acres will be planted in cotton. As with peanuts, no doubt it would be financially healthier for farmers to grow for different tiers of markets and seek value-added opportunities instead of chasing a global commodity price. With 80 precent of the U.S. cotton crop exported, fewer cotton acres also might be a chance to develop circularities within the Georgia agricultural economy. For example, Georgia is first in the U.S. in the number of broiler chickens with 1.31 billion. It produces 5.2 billion eggs, good for sixth nationally. Could Georgia use more its row crop land to feed its chickens? Could that row crop land support the apparent increased demand for Certified Organic eggs and chicken meat?

For the record, it is almost impossible to imagine how Georgia’s row crop farmers would operate without cotton entirely. Corn acres will go up, but Georgia probably cannot compete with the Midwest for cost of production. Soybean acres will go up, but soybeans are a problem for peanuts since they are both legumes and should have some years between them in a crop rotation (there’s also the Midwest production problem). Peanut acres will go up at the cost of declining prices. Another summer rotational crop is needed, but an adequate replacement for cotton doesn’t come to mind.

In the words of University of Georgia Extension cotton agronomist Camp Hand, “…in Georgia, we’re married to it; for better or worse or death to us part.”

The Georgia Organic Peanut Association’s participation in the Georgia Peanut Tour was supported by the USDA Southeast Transition to Organic Partnership Program.

Lessons from the UGA Peanut Tour, Part 2: Ramifications for Certified Organic Agriculture